Landslide Hazard Induced by Climate Changes in North-Eastern Romania

Climate change driven by humans is a certitude, with uncertainties regarding the level of climate variability. This variability will influence natural hazard processes and the climate change uncertainty is transferred also to natural hazard modelling. The uncertainty is further multiplied by the fact that humans continue to modify the land surface, thus influencing the natural hazards, especially in the case of landslides. This mixture of factors can only be investigated through modelling under various scenarios, with results that can be validated in the near future and that can be used to establish measures and capabilities of adaptation to changing patterns of natural hazards induced by climate changes. We present the empirical evaluation of the landslide hazard in Northeastern Romania based on the current climate change scenarios, which show that this area will present an increase in mean annual and seasonal rainfall quantities. The historic rainfall data was empirically correlated with the historical landslide events. The correlation show that this increase in rainfall quantity will probably increase the frequency of the landslide events and of the reactivation of existing landslides, which cover almost 20% of the study area. The maximum 24 h rainfall during summer and the coupling of the autumn rainfall, with spring snowmelt and spring and summer rainfall which are the main triggers of landslides in the study area have the potential to reach a maximum similar with that from the 1960–1990 wet period, in 2030–2050, considering the most probable climate scenarios. This situation require actions in order to manage these natural hazards, because the study area has a high degree of vulnerability, being one of the poorest areas from Romania. This increase in landslide hazard is worrying since the study area exhibit an increase of anthropic pressure which was previously also related with landslides.

Niculiţă M. (2020) Landslide Hazard Induced by Climate Changes in North-Eastern Romania. In: Leal Filho W., Nagy G., Borga M., Chávez Muñoz P., Magnuszewski A. (eds) Climate Change, Hazards and Adaptation Options. Climate Change Management. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37425-9_13

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-37425-9_13